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Did you know that Pfizer ( PFE 0.36% ) makes more than just a COVID-19 vaccine? Comirnaty gets so much attention that it would be easy to forget that it wasn't always a Pfizer vaccine.
Pfizer markets Comirnaty in collaboration with BioNTech ( BNTX -5.46% ), a relatively small biotechnology company that, at the beginning of the pandemic, lacked the resources to rapidly develop a new vaccine. This isn't unusual. The vast majority of top-selling products from Pfizer, and every other big pharmaceutical company, have external origins.
Licensing a successful drug is all fine and good, but it's usually more lucrative to own the whole thing. To this end, Pfizer recently completed a $6.7 billion acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals for complete access to Etrasimod, an experimental anti-inflammation drug for people with ulcerative colitis and other autoimmune disorders.
Etrasimod isn't going to outperform Pfizer's COVID-related products, but this acquisition could be very beneficial for shareholders. Here's why.
On March 23, 2022, Pfizer told investors that Etrasimod met the main goal in a phase 3 trial with ulcerative colitis patients. After 12 weeks of treatment, a significantly higher percentage of patients randomized to receive Etrasimod achieved clinical remission compared to the placebo group. Pfizer's saving the juicy details for an upcoming scientific conference, but they're probably bad news for a similar drug from Bristol Myers Squibb ( BMY 1.20% ) called Zeposia.
Last May, the FDA approved Zeposia to treat ulcerative colitis patients, an indication expected to generate around $1.4 billion in sales for Bristol Myers by 2026. Zeposia is a capsule that works the same way as Etrasimod to prevent unnecessary inflammation that earned approval to treat multiple sclerosis in 2020. In a pivotal trial leading to its approval for ulcerative colitis, Zeposia helped 18% of patients achieve clinical remission after 10 weeks of treatment compared to 6% of patients given a placebo.
Image source: Getty Images.
Etrasimod modulates the same sphingosine 1-phosphate (SNP1) receptors that Zeposia acts on, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn it's significantly more effective. Pfizer didn't make its final bid for Arena Pharmaceuticals until it saw phase 3 ulcerative colitis data, which was months after Bristol Myers began marketing Zeposia to ulcerative colitis patients.
Zeposia earned its first FDA approval in 2020 as a new treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS). Etrasimod will probably earn more as an ulcerative colitis treatment, but an eventual MS indication could add more than $1 billion to overall Etrasimod sales down the road.
By the end of March, Pfizer expects to report results from a 52-week study with ulcerative colitis patients and Etrasimod. After a year of treatment, 37% of patients given Zeposia achieved remission, which was 19% better than patients who received a placebo.
There will be some ins and outs to sort through, but investors want to keep an eye open for a treatment difference of at least 20% compared to placebo when Pfizer reads out 52-week results. If Etrasimod clearly outperforms Zeposia it could begin adding revenue to Pfizer's top line in 2023.
In 2021, Pfizer manufactured over 3 billion doses of Comirnaty, and it's producing an antiviral treatment for COVID-19 called Paxlovid at a hair-raising pace. In February, the company told investors to expect $54 billion in combined sales of Paxlovid and Comirnaty in 2022. That works out to around half of management's estimate for total revenue this year.
Record-breaking sales of Paxlovid and Comirnaty certainly overshadow the company's Arena Pharmaceuticals acquisition. The important takeaway for individual investors is that making smart deals like the one it made for Arena is the only way Pfizer can continue growing after high demand for Paxlovid and Comirnaty subsides.
Video-game developer Take-Two Interactive ( TTWO 2.66% ) is in the middle of a potentially volatile period for the business. The tailwinds that helped boost sales during the COVID-19 pandemic when the world's population demanded more in-home entertainment are fading away.
Meanwhile, the industry is undergoing a significant upgrade of its gaming technology. Next-generation gaming consoles have been launched by the two primary providers, Sony and Microsoft. Let's look closer at the one red flag and one green flag for Take-Two Interactive.
Image source: Getty Images.
Take-Two Interactive derives a large part of its revenue and profits from content that people play at home. It's no surprise then that the business would experience a boost during the pandemic when hundreds of millions of people were forced to entertain themselves at home.
Indeed, sales increased by 15.8% in 2020. Typically, revenue increases are reserved for years when the company has a hit gaming title release.
With limited game launches in 2021 and momentum in economic reopening, Take-Two's revenue growth slowed to 9.2% for the year. With a strengthening arsenal in the battle against COVID-19, governments are opting to cautiously remove business restrictions. The trend will be a headwind to Take-Two Interactive which will, even more so, depend on hit titles to generate revenue.
As mentioned earlier, Sony launched the next iteration of its popular gaming console, the PlayStation 5, in 2020. Similarly, Microsoft launched the next-generation Xbox gaming console. Interestingly, Take-Two Interactive sells games for personal computers, mobile devices, and the aforementioned consoles. However, console game sales comprised 74.6% of its overall revenue in its fiscal 2021 year (ended March 31, 2021).
This segment from the company's 2021 annual report highlights the impact:
During console transitions, we may simultaneously incur costs both in continuing to develop and market new titles for prior-generation video game platforms, which may not sell at premium prices, and also in developing products for next-generation platforms, which may not generate immediate or near-term revenues. As a result, our business and operating results may be more volatile and difficult to predict during console transitions than during other times.
In other words, costs for the company increase while consumers decrease purchases and wait to upgrade to the new gaming systems.
To make matters worse, the coronavirus pandemic clogged supply chains worldwide, leading to shortages in supplies of these new gaming systems. Two years after launching, Sony's PlayStation 5 remains sold out at major retailers, and Microsoft's Xbox also has limited availability.
The good news is that supply-chain constraints are easing. Fewer folks are getting severely ill with COVID-19, and when there are outbreaks, the mandatory quarantine requirements are less demanding. That should result in more output of the next-generation gaming consoles and subsequently consumer adoption and purchases in games for the new systems.
The tailwind from easing supply chains should outweigh the headwind from people leaving their homes more often. Still, Take-Two's stock is not cheap, trading at a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 50.9, significantly higher than its peers. Investors appear to be pricing in excellent prospects for Take-Two Interactive.
